Crypto Bear Market in 2022? Find out from our Summary of the Latest Blockcrunch Podcast Episode

Crypto Bear Market in 2022? Find out from our Summary of the Latest Blockcrunch Podcast Episode

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This week, we summarize the latest episode from the Blockcrunch podcast hosted by Jason Choi from Spartan Capital. In the episode we’ve summarized below, Jason interviews Jordi Alexander from Selini Capital.

Jordi began his career in crypto after a long run in poker, games, and stock trading at large. After he started being active in crypto, Selena Capital happened. The firm does everything, starting from designing protocols and mechanics to venture deals. Jordi was previously into fixed income assets and commodities trading, before becoming fully active in the crypto space.

In the beginning of the podcast, Jordi states that there is a strong correlation between traditional and crypto markets for the last two years. He, therefore, tends to check both the stocks and bonds regularly, along with the crypto market. According to him, there’s now a huge warning sign for the times to come in the macro market. This is because both the stocks and bonds are down. Whenever stocks went down, bonds acted as a reliable option as they remained stable. But this time around, both are down, which may signal the end of a cycle.

It’s interesting how Jordi also tends to notice the macro market to understand and speculate the path of crypto markets. In most of the previous cycles, people got away by just looking at the Bitcoin and catching up with the latest happenings in the ICO market. Furthermore, Bitcoin acted as the flagbearer for the entire crypto market for a while now. That being said, we now have a resurgence of various de-correlation theories, stating that the crypto market won’t be as closely tied to Bitcoin as it has been.

Jordi, however, does not subscribe to the de-correlation thesis. He says that whenever there is a decline in the market, almost all crypto currencies and coins tend to lose value almost equally. But on the way up, though, various cryptocurrencies tend to perform in different ways. This is because the thesis of each token and coin gets strongly evaluated during the lows, and when the value climbs up, only the strong ones tend to recover totally.

So in essence, in a bear market, when everything is going down, there will be correlation between various crypto assets. But in a bull market, there would be a significant de-correlation. It is worth noting that Jordi does not call the current phase a bear market; but he does state that the bull market’s run is over.

During the next few turbulent months to come, Bitcoin thesis will also be re-evaluated. All things said and done, Bitcoin will always take a central asset in space. That being said, Bitcoin may not certainly be the highest valued asset in the crypto market. This is because Bitcoin comes with its own set of issues, which can of course be solved. Nonetheless, it is the widely known crypto asset with a huge market consensus, meaning that there would be a correlation between Bitcoin performance and the crypto market at large.

After discussing the correlation between Bitcoin and the crypto market, the podcast changes its direction as Jordi is asked to share his opinion on the market outlook. Especially considering the start of the year flows.

Jordi says that the start of any month, or even year, sees a huge rise in activity and increase in value. Around the middle, though, there would be a dip, followed by an anticipation for the next month and a subsequent rise. The same could be the case with the current year, says Jordi. What this means is that we either get a strong start and sustain it or the bull run that has been going on for the past 15 to 16 months will come to an end. If that does happen, investors will have to be more cautious and disciplined in their approach.

It is also worth noting that this year in specific is going to be a rate hiking year. This is because there is a record-level surge in inflation in the US. The Fed officials have also signaled that the central bank may increase interest rates around March due to the 40-year high in inflation. Even the quantitative easing that is being done by the Fed will come to an end by March. At this point, if the market doesn’t get a strong start, it may definitely indicate turbulent times ahead.

Coming to crypto in specific, Jordi states that there would be corrections. Largely because crypto is highly oversold. According to him, we may perhaps arrive at a balance, such as how Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to have reached a floor price at around 40k and 3k, respectively.

Now if we look at Bitcoin in specific, the floor price, like we said above, is at 40k, whereas the ceiling price is at 52k. From a risk and reward standpoint, the Bitcoin range will be somewhere around 46k to 47k, which is simply the average of the floor price and ceiling price. So according to Jordi, the price of Bitcoin will vary along that range until any new disruptive news makes its way onto influencing the crypto markets. This brings us to the next question. Keeping all the above conditions and situations in mind, what is the outlook like for the next six to 12 months? Especially considering the changes in macro markets, rising interest rates, and so on. How would it be for founders and builders? Should they raise money now?

While last year was a great environment to raise money for new projects and founders, especially the later half of the year, the same may not be certainly true for this year. For instance, a project with a specific idea and team may have been able to raise an X million dollars last year. But the same team may not be able to raise the same amount this year. In essence, getting capital may become hard this year; but if the markets recover halfway through, we may see some positive change.

Towards the end of the podcast, Jordi, while discussing the crypto market for the year to come, calls it a “PvP” or player vs player situation. He says that the market cap of crypto as a whole will grow slowly this year when compared to the previous one. Moreover, the assumptions and narratives of most crypto tokens and coins are going to be questioned. It is going to be very much unlike the previous year where the top hundred coins got to benefit from the liquidity wave and grow as a whole.

Check out the entire podcast here to find out the key opportunities Jordi is keen about, positioning into 2022, and more.

That’s all we have to share from the latest podcast episode of the Blockcrunch Podcast. Follow us on our socials and join our email list to miss no updates! Links below.

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Built for Ethereum and EVM-based chains, Arcana is the web3 infrastructure to easily onboard dApp users and enable user data privacy and ownership. Web3 developers use Arcana’s SDKs for a seamless, familiar user onboarding experience via social authentication and passwordless login. All user data is encrypted, secured with data access fully controlled by the users, and powered by blockchain.

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Watch out for Arcana’s upcoming Testnet and Mainnet in 2022.

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